I’m not fond of alarmist theories or “bad things are happening, fast” attitude, but… bad things are just going to happen soon in California. The likelihood of a major quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%-and such a quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the state.

USGS geophysicist and lead scientist Ned Field and his team used a new model to determine the probability of big quakes. This model combines information from seismology, earthquake geology, and geodesy. Here’s what he had to say:

“This new, comprehensive forecast advances our understanding of earthquakes and pulls together existing research with new techniques and data. Planners, decision makers and California residents can use this information to improve public safety and mitigate damage before the next destructive earthquake occurs.”

The probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years striking the greater Los Angeles area is 67%, and in the San Francisco Bay Area it is 63%, similar to previous Bay Area estimates. So the odds are not that great; hopefully, preparations will be done.

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