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Experts Say Autism Surge Is Driven By Better Screening. RFK Jr Desperately Wants It To Be Something Else

RFK Jr just declared war on decades of autism research—armed with no data, a debunked myth, and a deadline.

Mihai AndreibyMihai Andrei
April 17, 2025
in Diseases, Health, News
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Edited and reviewed by Tibi Puiu
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AI-edited image of RFK Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. strode to the podium at HHS headquarters, giving his first press conference as secretary. He pointed to a report from his own agency: the CDC’s latest Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network survey. The report mentioned that the official number of autism cases is rising because today’s children are being screened and diagnosed earlier and more thoroughly than in the past.

Yet Kennedy refused to accept the explanation.

“One of the things I think we need to move away from today,” he said, “is this ideology that … the relentless increases are simply artifacts of better diagnoses, better recognition.”

​The experts had made their cases and argued it in writing. Kennedy, who has built his public profile on skepticism of experts and science denialism—most notably around vaccines—wants the cause to be different.

Chasing Ghosts

The CDC’s survey found that autism affects about 32.2 per 1,000 eight‑year‑olds—roughly one in 31 children—though rates varied by region, from as low as 9.7 per 1,000 in Laredo, Texas, to 53.1 per 1,000 in California.

Boys were diagnosed over three times more often than girls (49.2 vs. 14.3 per 1,000), and prevalence was higher among Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, Hispanic, American Indian/Alaska Native, and multiracial children than among White children.

Importantly, the report shows that children born more recently are being identified much earlier: those born in 2018 were 1.7 times more likely to receive an autism diagnosis by 48 months than those born in 2014. This reflects the impact of expanded screening guidelines, broader service eligibility, and increased access to comprehensive evaluations.

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But Kennedy simply refused the findings. He did not present any new data. He didn’t say why he doubts the research. He simply said “Doctors and therapists in the past weren’t stupid” and said it must be something environmental causing autism. He listed “suspects” that could cause autism —mold, air, water, food additives, medications, ultrasounds, parental factors—and pledged to commission studies to identify the causes by September.

Anti-Scientific and Dangerous

Kennedy’s opening remarks also drew widespread criticism on social media.

The idea that vaccines cause autism began with a single, flawed 1998 study that was later retracted for ethical breaches and bad science. Since then, researchers have tested every angle—MMR shots, thimerosal preservatives, even individual vaccine ingredients—and found nothing. Large-scale reviews by the National Academy of Medicine and hundreds of studies worldwide report no causal link between any vaccine and autism.

There’s a mountain of science debunking this myth and nothing supporting it. As Richard Hughes IV, a vaccine policy specialist, put it, “There is no link, and it’s just irresponsible” to suggest otherwise.

RFK Jr is suggesting otherwise.

Kennedy pledged a global research effort, led by controversial figure David Geier, to pin down the culprits by September. That’s not how science works. You can’t simply create that timeline and promise a result by then. The former FDA vaccine chief, Dr. Peter Marks, warned on CBS’s Face the Nation that such an aggressive timeline could lead to flawed conclusions. “If you just ask me … is it possible to get the answer that quickly? I don’t see any possible way,” he said.

Plus, neither Kennedy nor anyone else has explained the process. Such studies are carefully planned. You select your methodology, which can include analyzing existing databases, collecting new data, conducting a review of existing studies, and carefully planning out a roadmap. Kennedy has been woefully untransparent about what he is even trying to do. The only thing we know for sure is that he wants to find an “unknown” cause for this autism.

The New Normal Is Abnormal

Kennedy’s long track record as an anti‑vaccine crusader—and his willingness to embrace conspiracy theories—raises serious questions about his motives. Decades before taking office, he championed the debunked claim that thimerosal‑preserved vaccines cause autism, publishing the now‑retracted “Deadly Immunity” article in 2005 and repeatedly promoting the myth in speeches and editorials. His public persona has been built on casting doubt on established science, not on rigorous evidence.

Kennedy’s agenda so far has been clear: sow doubt, rally supporters, and stake his claim as the lone voice brave enough to “follow the science no matter what it says.” But he’s ignoring the real, rigorous, transparent, and peer-reviewed science.

His history suggests his new “environmental toxin” campaign may be more about scoring political points than uncovering the truth. Reuters reports that his HHS team even asked the FDA for nonexistent data to support an anti‑vaccine narrative, leading to the ouster of the agency’s top vaccine official, Peter Marks.

Kennedy’s promise to “follow the science no matter what it says” rings hollow. Of course, there is plenty to investigate regarding autism. But Kennedy seems to want to find something no matter what.

This is not science, and it’s not health. It’s an ideological attack.

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Mihai Andrei

Mihai Andrei

Dr. Andrei Mihai is a geophysicist and founder of ZME Science. He has a Ph.D. in geophysics and archaeology and has completed courses from prestigious universities (with programs ranging from climate and astronomy to chemistry and geology). He is passionate about making research more accessible to everyone and communicating news and features to a broad audience.

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