The first study to examine how climate change will affect turbulences found that the random up-and-down motions will become far more common in the future. According to the new research conducted by researchers from the University of Reading, UK, all kinds of turbulences from light to moderate to severe will considerably become more frequent.
Dr. Paul Williams and colleagues modeled what would happen to atmospheric currents at an altitude of around 12 km (39,000 feet) if there were 560 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere. Right now, global average CO2 levels stand at about 410 ppm, the highest they’ve been in three million years. A previous study featured on ZME Science this week found that in a business as usual scenario CO2 in the atmosphere could rise to 600ppm by the mid-century, which is unprecedented in 50 million years since the hot days of the Eocene.
Climate change caused by anthropogenic global warming will cause stronger wind shears within the jet stream. These wind shears are a major cause of turbulence when they become unstable. The researchers found light turbulence will increase by 59%, light to moderate turbulence by 75%, moderate by 94%, moderate to severe by 127%, and severe by 149%, as reported in Advances in Atmospheric Science.
Don’t panic
While this may sound distressing, turbulences can’t crash an airplane especially today when modern aircraft are fitted with high-tech stabilizing technology. But that’s not to say flights won’t become a lot bumpier in the coming decades. Injuries because of turbulences are also destined to become more frequent. Sometimes, a passenger who doesn’t wear a seatbelt might be thrown about the airplane or get injured by falling overhead luggage. Every year, turbulences cause hundreds of injuries from minor to severe.
“For most passengers, light turbulence is nothing more than an annoying inconvenience that reduces their comfort levels, but for nervous fliers even light turbulence can be distressing,” Williams said in a statement.
“However, even the most seasoned frequent fliers may be alarmed at the prospect of a 149% increase in severe turbulence, which frequently hospitalises air travellers and flight attendants around the world.”
To tackle these new challenges, aircraft will have to become even ‘smarter’ than they are today. Wired reports that a French company called Thales demonstrated an onboard LIDAR system that can spot turbulences 18 miles ahead of the airplane. However, this technology adds a lot of weight to the aircraft and can be extremely expensive. For the moment, airlines and manufacturers aren’t interested in such an investment but they might change their minds sooner than they care to think.
Overall, climate change will make flying more uncomfortable — and it’s not just because of the more frequent turbulence. A report issued last year by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) found that, besides increased turbulence, climate change will intensify take-off difficulties, icing incidents as well as dust storms that might threaten the engines.
“Aviation is an extremely risk averse business. Climate change poses a new set of risks that airports need to assess properly. The last decades have provided a glimpse of the future climate, but the main effects will be more evident three or four decades from now, and onwards,” the report reads.
“There is thus no reason to panic, but much of the airport infrastructure erected today will be there in the new climate.”
“The robustness of aircraft and indeed the robustness of the entire aviation system should be monitored carefully, as the sector will have to prepare for the more extreme meteorological conditions that are expected in the future as the climate continues to change,” the report’s authors cautioned.
Williams and colleagues will focus next on investigating other flight routes from around the world. They will examine how altitude and seasonal changes influence flights under various warming scenarios.
only people with very small minds, with limited thought processes and the inability to grasp the magnitude of our biosphere/earth, can even begin to believe that mankind can truly affect the climate in any significant way. people that say otherwise have their own agenda, and are attempting to manipulate you for their own ends. as they say, "follow the money" , as a prime example take Al Gore, look at how rich/wealthy he has become pushing this nonsense. take scientists that were 'nobodies' now they're up on pedestals with crowds of people just waiting with baited breath for every word of wisdom floating from the mouths,they are now important and have money, as they say a 'twofer', what a bunch of baloney!
here is a simple test as to the importance manmade climate change; when you start to hear from scientists, government officials and other self appointed guardians that call for the removal of carbon dioxide(the stuff that makes soda drinks fizzy)from sodas/soft drinks ,such as Coke, Pepsi, and all the other carbonated drinks, then and only then maybe we should start to believe them.
least anyone think otherwise that i believe that we can do whatever we want; Can mankind cause pollution and make the world unbearable to live in? yes it can. should we fight against every form of manmade pollution? yes ,by all means. it is everyone's responsibility to do so.
only people with an extraordinarily limited understanding/knowledge of science and a pathetic need to flaunt their shocking ignorance in public write such drivel.
Follow the money is always a way out of ANY argument. Unfortunately, you opted to not research the scientific principles involved and instead, fell into a conspiracy theory trap.
Now, I will give you this, though, most non skeptics magically think that we can do with LESS energy. Go figure.
The only way to fix global warming is with more, FAR more clean energy such as solar and wind attached to global power lines (summer's day solar to winter's night grid in real time) and or advanced nuclear. With that, we can easily afford the tech fixes such as proper soils management (change agriculture procedures to sequester more CO2).
Jets consume too much fossils, anyways (but they don't have to if we keep up the scientific research), we need flying auto cars in our not to distant future.