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Home → Environment → Climate

It’s May, but Europe is colder than the Arctic. Here’s why

You've guessed it: climate change strikes again.

Tibi Puiu by Tibi Puiu
May 20, 2021
in Climate

On May 19, temperatures in some parts of the Arctic reached a scorching hot 30°C (86.5°F) — that’s positive degrees not minus — which was hotter than virtually all of Europe, with the exception of Spain.

This is not normal.

In a series of Twitter posts, Scottish meteorologist Scott Duncan broke it down for us, using data and graphics to explain the double anomaly — why it’s exceptionally hot in the Arctic and exceptionally cold in Europe right now.

It reached +30°C (86.5°F) in the Arctic today. Hotter than pretty much all of Europe right now.

Truly exceptional for any time of the year but mind-boggling for May. More updates to follow. pic.twitter.com/2CTTykUW3F

— Scott Duncan (@ScottDuncanWX) May 19, 2021

This is part of a ferocious heatwave.

Hotter tomorrow for many places along the fringe of the Arctic ice sheets.pic.twitter.com/eg7SQYDEV3

— Scott Duncan (@ScottDuncanWX) May 19, 2021

According to Duncan, this past week, some parts of the Arctic are 20-24°C hotter than average for this time of year. Meanwhile, Europe is much cooler than it is normal for May, with just about 20°C less than expected.

This configuration has been in place for days to allow a swift flow of strong heat from the south.

This map represents the temperature about 1.5 km above sea level (sometimes useful to see what sort of airmass we have).

Notice how cold the airmass is over Iceland and Scotland. pic.twitter.com/WZ2E5Ryjif

— Scott Duncan (@ScottDuncanWX) May 19, 2021

The meteorologist says that as the Arctic is warming fast, this will make profound heat waves more likely.

Let's start with anomalies. An anomaly compares the actual temperature to what is considered average for the time of year.

🔴 = warmer than normal
🔵 = colder than normal

You can see that most of Europe is much colder than average while Russia bakes in incredible warmth. pic.twitter.com/mBzAdbCVe7

— Scott Duncan (@ScottDuncanWX) May 19, 2021

Global warming is not spread equally across the world, with regions warming more than others. The Arctic is warming 3-4 times faster than the rest of the world.

We mustn't forget that the Arctic (especially with continent to the south like we have here), is often subject to extremely wild temperature swings.

Turn on the southerly flow and you get continental heat.
Turn on the northerly flow and you get frigid ice air.

— Scott Duncan (@ScottDuncanWX) May 19, 2021

Although the world was shuttered last year due to the pandemic, Arctic warming took no breaks.

A recent report found 2020 was the second-warmest year in the Arctic since record-keeping began in 1900. Parts of Siberia were 5ºC above the long-term average in the first half of the year. The town of Verkhoyansk in Siberia reached 38ºC in June, which is the hottest temperature ever registered north of the Arctic Circle, according to NOAA’s report.

I urge you to look at this thread I made for the year 2020.https://t.co/M2OWzOVhFg

— Scott Duncan (@ScottDuncanWX) May 19, 2021

Duncan claims climate change is the driving factor responsible for the temperature anomalies we’re seeing now in Europe and the Arctic.

Naturally, we can't forget about sea ice. Increasingly ferocious heatwaves are having profound impacts along with the background warming trend.

More discussed on sea ice from last year in my blog: https://t.co/Cm4k2RYmFR

— Scott Duncan (@ScottDuncanWX) May 19, 2021

So in a nutshell…

Yes 30°C is surprisingly hot for the Arctic in May.
Yes heat is not unheard of or new to the Arctic
Yes local May records were broken in Northwest Russia.

Yes human induced climate change is at the heart of many of our changes and extremes in the Arctic.

— Scott Duncan (@ScottDuncanWX) May 19, 2021
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