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Why researchers are confident that we’ll (eventually) have a COVID-19 vaccine

It could be 12 months or even more, but we will have a vaccine.

Mihai AndreibyMihai Andrei
March 31, 2020
in Diseases, Health, News
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It’s not false hope. It will be a year, a year and a half, or potentially even more, but there are strong reasons to believe that we will ultimately have a vaccine for COVID-19.

Comparison to the common cold

At first glance, it seems weird. We’re familiar with coronaviruses in general, we know they cause some common colds, we don’t have a vaccine for the common cold, so why would we have one for COVID-19?

While some coronaviruses do indeed cause the common cold, they’re far from the only virus to do so. The common cold is not a single virus, it is a term we use for infections associated with approximately 200 different viruses (noroviruses, rhinoviruses, etc). Devising a vaccine that works for all these different viruses, as well as their genetic variations and the different strains that emerge from year to year, is extremely challenging.

Meanwhile, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is a single virus — and one which, according to recent studies, mutates at a relatively slow rate. This is encouraging because it checks all the boxes for a vaccine candidate.

Comparison with the influenza

Hopefully, we’re all done with comparing COVID-19 to influenza, but for the purpose of a vaccine, there are also valuable lessons.

We have an influenza vaccine — well, several, actually. There are multiple influenza strains and every flu season is different, in part because there are several influenza strains — but also because they mutate rapidly.

Unlike SARS-CoV-2, flu strains exhibit a high variability, which is why no flu vaccine is guaranteed 100% effective. We also have to make the flu shot yearly because of this reason, and also because antibodies generated by the vaccine can wane over time. As SARS-CoV-2 mutates slower, there’s a good chance (but not a guarantee) that the vaccine could be effective for a longer time.

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Probably not before 2021

But while there is plenty of reason to be optimistic in the long run, it’s unlikely that a vaccine can be developed within 6 months. The likely time frame that we’re looking at is 12-18 months — though, in truth, it’s been about a month since we heard that timeline, so let’s be optimistic and say it’s 11-17 months. Of course, there are few guarantees regarding the timeline.

It’s not entirely unlikely that a vaccine is developed more quickly. Human trials are imminent (some have already started), and there is an unprecedented impetus to develop vaccines against the disease. But ensuring that a vaccine is safe and effective takes a long time. Most vaccinologists are even wary of the 12 months timeframe, suggesting that a year and a half is probably more realistic.

Then, even after it is demonstrated, the vaccine needs to be mass-produced and distributed, which would take enormous resources. We will, almost certainly, get there. But it will take quite some time to do so.

Tags: coronavirusCOVID-19

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Mihai Andrei

Mihai Andrei

Dr. Andrei Mihai is a geophysicist and founder of ZME Science. He has a Ph.D. in geophysics and archaeology and has completed courses from prestigious universities (with programs ranging from climate and astronomy to chemistry and geology). He is passionate about making research more accessible to everyone and communicating news and features to a broad audience.

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