With all the stuff happening in the world right now, it’s easy to get distracted or simply forget that climate change is a thing. But just because we forget doesn’t mean it’s not happening. Researchers at the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) have found that the year so far has been so hot that regardless of how November and December turn out, 2024, is bound to be the hottest year on record.
We’ve reached an unfortunate milestone. It’s the first year in recorded history to be more than 1.5°C hotter than pre-industrial levels. Per the Paris Agreement, keeping the planet within 1.5 degrees of heating was the ambitious goal. That’s already out of grasp, and based on how things are going, even the main goal of staying under 2 degrees is at risk.
The announcement comes amid catastrophic weather events and a US election that promises to be equally catastrophic for the climate. Just in the past couple of months, we’ve had extreme weather events from Spain to the Americas, a stark reminder that climate change is now. The re-election of Donald Trump, a vehement climate denier who previously pulled the US out of any climate deal, doesn’t bode well.
The climate numbers are bad
There’s no secret recipe behind this accelerated climate heating. It’s the result of our accelerated greenhouse gas emissions. We’ve known this for decades already. However, the scale of heating is truly concerning.
According to C3S data, the global average temperature from January to October 2024 was 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average, breaking previous records. In fact, October 2024 alone was the second-warmest October globally, at 0.80°C above the 1991-2020 average and a striking 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels.
To put the scale of these figures into perspective, the C3S analysis indicates that temperatures would need to drop to preindustrial levels immediately to prevent 2024 from becoming the warmest year ever documented. Such a dramatic cooldown is nearly impossible.
For Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of C3S, this milestone should act as a catalyst for action. “This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29,” she emphasized. If there was ever a moment to recognize the necessity of curbing emissions and strengthening climate policy, Burgess suggests, it is now.
1.5 degrees was an important goal. We just blew by it
The significance of the 1.5°C threshold stems from the 2015 Paris Agreement, where nations committed to limiting warming below 2°C, ideally aiming for no more than 1.5°C. These are not arbitrary figures. Staying within 1.5°C would allow us to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change. This limit was intended as a long-term average and was designed as a safeguard against catastrophic weather extremes.
Yet, the data shows that monthly averages have repeatedly exceeded this limit over the past 16 months. We’re zooming past this boundary with no signs of slowing down.
Even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions tomorrow (which is pure fiction), the inertia of our current emissions would likely still be enough to push us past 1.5 degrees.
Surpassing the 1.5°C mark is more than just a symbolic boundary. It signals a world where devastating events — such as wildfires, floods, and heatwaves — become more common and intense. We’re already seeing it around us. The impacts of these temperature shifts are devastating. Flash floods in Spain claimed over 200 lives in October, as extreme rainfall lashed the Iberian Peninsula. In the Amazon, record drought has left rivers so dry that sandbanks are emerging, decimating local fish populations. Hurricanes fueled by warmer waters, like Hurricane Milton, pounded Florida. Meanwhile dry conditions across the United States added millions to the ranks of those living under drought conditions. This extreme weather is not a future concern, it is happening right now. It’s driving up food prices, displacing communities, and threatening lives.
Sea surface temperatures, another key indicator of climate change, also reached near-record levels in 2024. October saw an average sea surface temperature of 20.68°C in regions spanning from 60°S to 60°N, just shy of the highest-ever recorded for the month. Warm ocean waters intensify weather patterns, including hurricanes and cyclones, and disrupt marine ecosystems, threatening biodiversity and food security for millions.
Any reasons for optimism?
Carlo Buontempo, Director of C3S, notes that the heating trends are “bound to continue” unless immediate steps are taken. “The climate is warming, generally. It’s warming in all continents, in all ocean basins. So, we are bound to see those records being broken,” he told Reuters. The message from scientists is clear: unless we make significant changes, record-breaking heat and catastrophic weather will become the new normal.
Reasons for optimism are few, but not zero. Although the climate is clearly getting hotter, 2023 and 2024 were two outliers — they were much hotter than the rest. A part of this could be owed to natural cycles such as El Nino, meaning that the long-term temperature average may be slightly lower than it seems right now.
Parts of the Pacific have also shown signs of cooling, potentially indicating a shift toward La Niña conditions. Still much of the world’s oceans remain unusually warm. And in the Arctic and Antarctic, sea ice continues to shrink, reaching record-low extents.
To top it all off, the political will to address climate seems to be wavering. World leaders are meeting in Azerbaijan at the Conference of Parties (COP), the annual meeting meant to direct global policy against climate change. But it’s damning that the meeting takes place in a country largely supported by the fossil fuel industry with a questionable human rights record. Previous COPs drew similar criticism, so the world shouldn’t really hold its breath awaiting salvation from the COP.
The last train
All climate discussions, whether they’re high-level political discussions, articles you read online, or talks you have with your friends, tend to revolve around the same thing: we know what’s happening. There’s an abundance of evidence showing why we should act immediately and decisively on climate.
But we’re not doing enough, and we’re not acting fast enough.
In the United States, a shift in leadership has cast doubt on the strength of its climate commitments, leaving other nations wondering if they, too, can afford to continue ambitious policies in the face of economic uncertainty and protectionism. The tens of billions of dollars that countries promised to invest in the climate transition are not coming. Even China, widely praised for its climate action, is set to miss its climate targets.
Yet 2024’s record-breaking heat is the strongest possible reminder that climate action cannot wait.
As temperatures climb, so does the frequency and severity of climate-related disasters. Extreme weather events not only cost lives but also exacerbate inequalities, pushing vulnerable populations deeper into poverty and displacement. Every fraction of a degree matters. We’re on a timer, and the time to act is running out.
