Weather forecasts have gotten significantly better in recent years – not because we have a much better understanding of weather has gotten much better, but rather because advanced computers allow us to develop more complex models. You can generally predict weather for 2-3 days, and in some cases of up to 7-10 days. Anything that goes beyond that is simply not reliable, and 90 days? That’s little more than an educated guess.
When AccuWeather started making 45 weather predictions, comments from professionals were on the negative side, to put it lightly. Basically, there was an uproar among meteorologists, because that’s simply not doable. The fact that a reliable company advertised an impossibility was disturbing, as Jason Samenow from the the Capital Weather Gang at the Washington Post said:
“[AccuWeather] is simply peddling a useless product to people who don’t know better”.
Dan Satterfield, Chief Meteorologist for the CBS affiliate WBOC TV and collaborator for the AGU blogosphere also agrees:
“These forecasts are actually even worse than the Farmer’s Almanac, since they give rain chances and temperatures for exact points months into the future!”
This kind of thing should be condemned, because it’s basically AccuWeather taking advantage of users who don’t know better. There’s plenty good local meteorologists and other solid organizations (like NOAA or the Met Office) which will give you solid forecasts – for a few days in advance. What AccuWeather – one of the world’s most relied on weather forecasters – is advertising is simply non-scientific and indefensible. So if you are using their services, please contact them and tell them about this.
