A new interactive web application from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science offers a unique glimpse into the future of climate change. This tool enables users to explore how the climate in over 40,000 places and over 5,000 metropolitan areas will transform.
The digital map matches the expected future climates of these locations projected for 2080 with the current climates of other regions, offering a relatable and vivid picture of potential changes.
Long-term Projection
By just observing the projections we can see several interesting changes. The projection shows summers in 2080 London 4.6 degrees Celsius (8.2 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer and 10% drier than they are today under a high emissions scenario. It will mirror the climate of Labarde, France, some 720 kilometers (450 miles) south of the British capital.
New York City’s 2080 summers are expected to be a staggering 6.7 degrees Celsius (12.1 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer and 5.3% wetter. Meanwhile, the Big Apple’s once harsh winters will become much tamer with 5 degrees Celsius (8.9 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming. NYC’s 2080 climate will be analogous to the present climate of Ola, Arkansas, located at a different latitude 620 kilometers (390 miles) south in a straight line.
Many towns and cities in the Northern Hemisphere mirror this trend, in which the climate moves southward towards more equatorial climate zones.
Understanding Future Climate Impacts
“In 50 years, the northern hemisphere cities to the north are going to become much more like cities to the south,” said Matthew Fitzpatrick, professor of environmental science at the University of Maryland. “Everything is moving towards the equator in terms of the climate that’s coming for you. And the closer you get to the equator there are fewer and fewer good matches for climates in places like Central America, south Florida, and northern Africa. There is no place on earth representative of what those places they will be like in the future.”
Absolute temperature is expected to rise more slowly in the tropics compared to higher latitudes and polar regions. But a combination of heat stress and urban heat islands will make life very challenging for the over 3.5 billion people living close to the equator.
The app answers pressing questions about the future climate: Will summers get hotter? Will winters still bring snow? What happens if we reduce emissions? By providing data-driven insight, the tool helps users comprehend the profound impacts of climate change.
Fitzpatrick, who is a spatial ecologist, and colleagues utilized climate-analog mapping to create this tool. This technique statistically matches a location’s future climate with the current climate of another familiar place. Using the latest data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fitzpatrick illustrated anticipated temperature changes over decades under high and reduced emissions scenarios.
The app allows users to compare high greenhouse gas emissions trajectories, which predict an average global warming of around 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) by century’s end, with a reduced emissions scenario aligned with the Paris Climate Accord, predicting about a 1.5-degree Celsius (3-degree Fahrenheit) increase. The latter projection is the absolute best-case scenario considering the world is already 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer compared to the pre-Industrial period.
Comprehensible Climate Change
“I hope that it continues to inform the conversation about climate change,” Fitzpatrick said. “I hope it helps people better understand the magnitude of the impacts and why scientists are so concerned.”
This tool provides an accessible and comprehensible way for the general public to engage with and understand the significant shifts our planet is undergoing. By connecting the abstract concept of climate change to tangible, familiar places, it bridges the gap between scientific predictions and everyday experiences.
