Right on the heels of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, scientists have revealed a startling aspect of carbon dioxide’s role in global warming. They found that as more carbon dioxide floods the atmosphere, it becomes more potent at trapping heat, thereby driving even more global warming.
“Our finding means that as the climate responds to increases in carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide itself becomes a more potent greenhouse gas,” said the study’s senior author Brian Soden, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.
“It is yet further confirmation that carbon emissions must be curbed sooner rather than later to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.”
A New Perspective on Climate Dynamics
The study employs cutting-edge climate models to examine the stratosphere — a high-altitude region known to cool as CO2 levels rise. The researchers discovered that this cooling enhances the heat-trapping ability of CO2 when the concentration of the greenhouse gas increases. This means that carbon dioxide becomes increasingly potent the more it becomes abundant — which is every day.
For long, scientists believed the heat trapped by CO2 in the atmosphere, known as radiative forcing, remained constant over time. However, these startling findings paint a different picture, revealing yet another feedback loop that adds even more uncertainty (and, let’s face it, more anxiety).
Haozhe He, Ph.D. candidate and the study’s lead author, adds a crucial point: “Future increases in CO2 will provide a more potent warming effect on climate than an equivalent increase in the past.”
This insight is vital for interpreting both historical and future climate trends, indicating that high CO2 climates may be inherently more sensitive than their low CO2 counterparts. A report published earlier last month showed governments are failing at executing almost every policy needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Another study published in October warned that we’re on track to exhaust the world’s carbon budget by 2029, making the Paris Agreement‘s 1.5 °C target impossible to achieve.
In essence, this study unveils a worrying escalation in the potency of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas, demanding an immediate and concerted effort to limit carbon emissions. As world leaders convene to discuss climate strategies, this revelation could be pivotal in shaping future environmental policies and actions.
The findings appeared in the journal Science.
