In 2002, nearly 79% of Americans between the ages of 15 and 44 who didn’t yet have children still planned to become parents one day. Two decades later, that number has fallen dramatically. According to a new study, not only are fewer Americans planning to become parents, but the number who say they never want children — those who are childfree — has more than doubled.

In fact, nearly a third of American non-parents now fall into that category.

This shift in the shape of American families didn’t happen overnight, nor does it follow a simple trajectory. But research by Jennifer Watling Neal and Zachary Neal at Michigan State University (MSU) introduces a new and more nuanced lens through which to view it.

“We found that the percentage of nonparents who don’t want any children rose from 14% in 2002 to 29% in 2023,” said Neal, a psychology professor at MSU and co-author of the study. “During the same period, the percent of nonparents who plan to have children in the future fell from 79% to 59%.”

For decades, researchers and policymakers have largely divided non-parents into three groups: those who voluntarily don’t have children, those who want kids but can’t have them (due to biological issues), and those who simply haven’t had children yet. But this new study argues that such categories are outdated — and incomplete.

A Nation Rethinking Parenthood

Instead of a three-part model, Neal and Neal propose a more expansive framework they call the “ABC model,” which stands for Attitudes, Behaviors, and Circumstances. It draws not only on whether someone has children or wants them, but also on what factors—biological, social, or otherwise—might be influencing their situation.

Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), which surveyed 80,000 adults between 2002 and 2023, the study classifies non-parents into six mutually exclusive categories:

• Undecided: Individuals who are unsure if they want children but face no clear obstacles.
• Childfree: Individuals who do not want children, regardless of fertility status.
• Biologically childless: Individuals who want children but are physically unable to have them.
• Socially childless: Those who want children but face non-biological barriers, like a lack of partner or financial stability.
• Not yet parents: People who want children and face no known obstacles—essentially those who are waiting.
• Ambivalent: Individuals who are unsure if they want children and have barriers to parenthood.

“The ABC framework recognizes the importance of attitudes about children and circumstances that affect perceived and actual behavioral control over having children,” the authors explain.

Perhaps the most striking trend uncovered in the study is the rise of the childfree.

In 2002, only 13.8% of non-parents were childfree. By 2022–2023, that number had grown to 29.4%. The shift was consistent and statistically significant across the dataset, which includes over 80,000 respondents across two decades.

This trend runs parallel to declines in U.S. birth rates. But it also speaks to a deeper cultural change.

While some of the increase might stem from growing cultural freedom in expressing a desire not to have children, it may also reflect real shifts in values, economic constraints, climate anxiety, or evolving definitions of fulfillment and family.

The rise of the childfree also complicates the notion that low birth rates are simply the result of people delaying parenthood.

“We knew from our prior research that childfree adults were a large and growing group in Michigan,” said Zachary Neal, also a psychology professor at MSU and co-author of the study. “These new results confirm this is part of a nationwide trend that has been unfolding for over 20 years.”

Distinguishing between someone who can’t have children and someone who doesn’t want children isn’t just a matter of semantics. It carries real implications for health care, family policy, and workplace accommodations.

A person who is biologically childless might seek fertility treatments or adoption services. Someone who is childfree might be more interested in permanent contraception. Financial planning needs, mental health services, and even retirement decisions differ between the groups.

Understanding these differences is crucial for everything from insurance coverage to how we talk about “family values.”

Who Are the Non-Parents?

The study also paints a detailed demographic portrait of these six groups. For example, not-yet-parents tend to be younger (average age 23.9), while childfree individuals are slightly older (27.6 on average). The majority in all groups are white, urban, and employed. But there are important distinctions.

Notably, over one-third of childfree individuals identified as lesbian, gay, or bisexual.

Also striking: while most people in the “undecided” group are young, they report no obvious biological or social barriers to having children — suggesting that the choice is still actively unfolding.

By recognizing the diverse paths people take when they don’t become parents, Neal and Neal’s ABC framework offers a more accurate map of today’s American family landscape.

“It may be increasingly important to view childfree individuals as a type of family and to view the choice not to have children as a type of family formation,” the study concludes.

For demographers, this offers a sharper tool to track national trends. For policymakers, it invites a rethink of how resources are distributed and who is being served.

But to the researchers, this is about more than numbers.

“It’s important that society begins to recognize the diversity in people’s reproductive choices,” said Watling Neal. “Understanding these differences can help us build systems that are more inclusive and better prepared for the future.”

The findings appeared in the Journal of Marriage and Family.