Despite increased investment in renewable energy, global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have hit an all-time high in 2024, rising by 0.8%, according to a new study. The only periods in recent history when emissions have declined were during major global crises like the 2008 financial meltdown or the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, one of the study authors, adding that “time is running out.”

The latest research suggests atmospheric CO₂ levels will reach 422.5 parts per million this year — 52% above pre-industrial levels. This finding comes from the Global Carbon Budget report, compiled annually by a team of over 120 scientists to provide a peer-reviewed update on carbon emissions.

Emissions on the rise

The 2024 report highlights that, while renewable sources like wind and solar are expanding rapidly, fossil fuels continue to dominate. Emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas are all set to rise, with natural gas emissions alone expected to jump by 2.4%. Currently, coal, oil, and natural gas contribute 41%, 32%, and 21% of total CO₂ emissions, respectively.

Professor Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia noted that while there are some positive signs, the overall data remains grim.

“Despite progress in clean energy, growth in natural gas and oil use drives global fossil emissions up. Gas emissions grew in most countries but decreased in the European Union.” Oil emissions are pushed up by a rise in emissions from international aviation which is still catching up to pre-pandemic levels. “Coal emissions are also projected to increase, but more marginally,” the researcher told ZME Science.

Researchers stress that our current gains are not enough to reverse the overall trend of climate change, and we’ve not yet reached peak emissions.

“There are many signs of positive progress at the country level, and a feeling that a peak in global fossil CO₂ emissions is imminent,” said Dr. Glen Peters from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo. “But the global peak remains elusive.”

We’re running out of budget

The concept of a carbon budget is like managing a financial budge. Imagine you have a limited amount of money to spend before hitting your limit. In the case of climate change, the “money” is the amount of carbon dioxide (CO₂) we can emit before we surpass critical warming thresholds, such as 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Just like overspending leads to debt, overshooting the carbon budget means locking in catastrophic climate consequences — and we’ve been massively overspending.

The researchers stress that these modest gains are insufficient to halt climate change. They estimate that at the current rate, we have about six years before surpassing the critical 1.5°C warming threshold. Exceeding this limit could trigger increasingly severe climate impacts, from extreme weather to biodiversity loss.

The world is not on track to meet even the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement. “To limit warming well below 2°C, emissions should be 27% below 2019 levels by 2023. Instead, CO₂ emissions are projected to be 3.5% above 2019 levels,” explained Le Quéré.

Some (small) reasons for optimism

Despite the bleak outlook, there are reasons for cautious optimism and Le Quéré mentions that she sees “many positive signs that the world is decarbonizing.”

In the past decade, emissions grew more slowly compared to the previous decade. Additionally, countries like China and Norway have made significant strides in reducing emissions through the adoption of electric vehicles. Twenty-two countries have managed to reduce emissions while still growing their economies, up from 18 in the last decade.

I am encouraged to see so many positive trends in tackling climate change and the rapid deployment of renewable energy from wind and solar, alongside the uptake of electric cars, which is driving prices down and supporting more uptake around the world. I wish we already had seen peak global emissions, but that can’t be far away.”

Yet, the report makes clear that this incremental progress will not be enough.

We’re not on the right path and our emissions are still increasing. Sure, they’re increasing slower than before, but they’re still increasing. To make matters even worse, political will is waning in some parts of the world. Donald Trump’s reelection is the most impactful event, as Trump has made it very clear he does not care about the climate. Even in Europe, the region faring best on climate, some climate measures have proven unpopular, sparking protests and even riots.

In fact, the most progress we’re seeing right now only comes from economic considerations. It just so happens that renewable energy is becoming cheaper than fossil fuel energy. There’s very little reason to pat ourselves on the back when our progress stems from simply adopting the most efficient solution. If that continues to be our main approach, it’s hard to see climate change stopping anytime soon.