Image courtesy of University of Oregon

It’s time we face it, a big one is coming – and soon ! All the predictions point towards a major earthquake near the San Andreas fault in a short time, and Los Angeles will suffer the most of it. A recent study published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America confirmed that the Los Angeles basin is way overdue for a major earthquake, and by more than a century; they came to this conclusion after setting an earthquake chronology of the San Andreas fault.

Their results showed seven major earthquake events: 905-961 AD, 959-1015 (possible), 1090-1152, 1275-1347, 1320-1489 (possible), 1588-1662 and 1657-1713, based on radiocarbon dates and analysis of the seismic structures preserved in the sediment.

The fact that a major earthquake is threatening California isn’t what you would call breaking news, but considering the fact that earthquakes took place ever 100-150 years, and the last one was 300 years ago shows just how long overdue this earthquake is. Ray Weldon, professor and head of the department of geological sciences at the University of Oregon, documents that the south end of the San Andreas fault has gone perhaps 140 years longer without a significant seismic event than expected.

“We have dated the last five to seven prehistoric earthquakes of the southernmost 100 kilometers (about 60 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, which is the only piece of the fault that hasn’t ruptured in historical times,” Weldon said. “If you were there in about 1690, when the last earthquake occurred, the odds of getting to 2010 without an earthquake would have been 20 percent or less.”

Sadly, the scientific community seems more concerned about this than the people from Los Angeles who should be getting prepared for the unevitable earthquake that will come – and soon.