A recession happens when the economy slows down. People lose jobs, prices rise, and spending drops. This affects us in all sorts of ways, including one unexpected place: fingernails. As money gets tighter, long, elaborate manicures are giving way to short, simple nails — a trend some are calling “recession nails.”

The term exploded online after longtime commerce editor Bryce Gruber shared a viral TikTok revealing that major beauty brands are shifting their focus (and their ad budgets) toward promoting short, tidy nails. “Money is tight for a lot of people right now — people are opting for lower maintenance looks,” she told Newsweek.

A manicure, in this economy?

The core idea isn’t new. During tough economic times, small luxuries often become barometers of consumer sentiment. In the 2000s, Estée Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder coined the “lipstick index,” observing that lipstick sales often rise when people can’t afford bigger indulgences. Economists have pointed to the “men’s underwear index” and even skirt lengths as quirky — but sometimes telling — indicators of financial downturns.

Another surprising index highlighted recently is the “tooth fairy index“: as people become more anxious about their finances, the tooth fairy becomes less and less generous.

The nails theory also seems to have some substance to it. Harper’s Bazaar and ELLE Australia have also flagged short nails as the defining style of 2025, describing a “dramatic shift” away from long acrylics toward natural, squared, or “squoval” (square-oval) shapes. Gruber claims that major media platforms and beauty companies are already adjusting their content and products accordingly.

If this all sounds like just “vibes” and not real economy, you should know that the economy has way more vibes in it than you’d think. Economists regularly check “economic vibes“. Bad vibes can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, and there’s even a term called “vibecession.” Ultimately, when enough people and big brands change direction, the economy will eventually follow.

The “recession nails” are a great example of that. They’re not linked to the economy directly, but they reflect changing consumer behavior. As inflation and economic uncertainty grow, people shift toward lower-maintenance, cost-effective beauty routines.

Is a recession really coming?

Not everyone’s convinced that manicures can serve as macroeconomic indicators.

“It just has to do with the seasonality of human preferences,” said economist Christopher Clarke in an interview with HuffPost. He argued that while cultural trends may reflect broader shifts, they’re no substitute for hard data like unemployment rates and investment declines.

That’s a fair point. But in a world increasingly shaped by social media algorithms and microtrends, public sentiment is easier to read in the comments than in a spreadsheet. Whether or not “recession nails” measure economic health, they clearly tap into a broader sense of uncertainty — and the collective response to it.

Economically, things are uncertain. More and more S&P 500 companies mentioned “recession” during their earnings calls between March and May 2025. That suggests growing concern among corporate leaders. Some of the anxiety stems from global economic instability, rising interest rates, and uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s second-term trade policies, which have triggered market jitters despite recent tariff rollbacks.

But not all experts are convinced a downturn is imminent. Many point to steady employment rates and continued consumer spending as signs the economy may still avoid a full-blown recession. J.P. Morgan puts the odds of a recession at 40% by the end of the year.

It’s clear that there’s a growing appetite for minimalism across many domains: clean aesthetics, soft glam, no-makeup makeup, “quiet luxury.” “Recession nails” may simply be the latest iteration. But this could also be a story of shrinking budgets, recalibrated priorities, and a beauty industry learning to sell restraint.

Because in this economy, who has time to wait for acrylic to dry?