This flu season is shaping up to be the worst in at least 15 years. While the exact number of cases is impossible to determine, the CDC estimates at least 29 million infections so far. Nearly every state is experiencing high flu activity, with over one in three tests coming back positive, suggesting the actual infection rate is likely much higher than reported.

Nearly every state is reporting high or very high flu activity, with roughly 32% of tests coming back positive and some areas testing as high as nearly 40% positive. The hospitalization rate is also very high. Over 370,000 people (and possibly as many as 820,000) people have been hospitalized because of the flu. At least 16,000 fatalities have been reported. All this comes as the CDC is facing policy decisions that have weakened the nation’s ability to track and respond to flu threats effectively.

It's especially bad for children

The two predominant flu strains circulating this year are causing more severe outcomes than in previous seasons, particularly among children. In a worrying milestone, flu hospitalizations have surpassed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the first time since the pandemic began.

Another factor contributing to the crisis is declining flu vaccination rates, especially among children. This drop in immunization is making an already bad season even worse.

Efforts to combat the flu are further hampered by policy decisions that have limited U.S. access to global flu data. Since the Trump administration announced the U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO), CDC officials have been restricted from accessing key global flu tracking platforms like FluNet and FluID. This lack of data makes it harder for the U.S. to anticipate and respond to emerging flu threats.

"We are communicating with them but we haven't heard anything back," Maria Van Kerkhove, emerging diseases and zoonoses unit head for the WHO, said in a press conference. The WHO plays a key role in determining the composition of seasonal flu vaccines, which are updated annually to target the most dominant strains. Without data from the U.S., next year’s vaccine effectiveness could be hampered.

At the same time, the CDC is facing major staff cuts. PhD-level scientists who help state and local officials respond to outbreaks are receiving termination letters. An important branch of the CDC’s "disease detectives" has also been dismantled, reportedly at the request of Elon Musk's DOGE task force — an alarming decision with potentially serious consequences.

All this is compounded by a major looming threat of avian flu.

USDA "accidentally fired" key workers

This especially bad flu year coincides with a surge in avian flu in US poultry farms. We already know that the virus has jumped to mammals more than once and in isolated cases, has already infected humans. For now, the avian flu doesn't spread from human to human. But there's a very real risk of the two influenza viruses mixing and creating a super-flu strain that could spread between people and turn into a pandemic.

As if this weren't concerning enough, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently "accidentally" fired key employees working on the federal response to the H5N1 avian flu outbreak.

"Although several positions supporting [bird flu efforts] were notified of their terminations over the weekend, we are working to swiftly rectify the situation and rescind those letters," a USDA spokesperson said in a statement. This is strikingly similar to the incident where DOGE fired key nuclear force workers and then tried to rehire the workers, only to realize they couldn't find them.

Dr. Keith Poulsen, director of the Wisconsin Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, emphasized the seriousness of the situation, noting that some of the fired workers were on the front lines of surveillance for the entire outbreak — and they were already understaffed before Trump.

A perfect storm

This flu season has laid bare a troubling reality: weakened public health infrastructure, declining vaccination rates, and political decisions that have left the U.S. vulnerable to infectious diseases. The lack of access to global flu data, combined with the firing of critical health workers, has made it harder to track and respond to outbreaks. Meanwhile, the looming threat of a potential avian flu crossover only adds to the urgency.

Without immediate action to restore public health resources, improve vaccine uptake, and strengthen global cooperation, the U.S. risks facing an even deadlier flu season in the future — or worse, a new pandemic it is ill-equipped to handle.