homehome Home chatchat Notifications


Falling battery cost might push wind and solar to 50% of global energy generation by 2050

Renewable energy is set to power the future.

Tibi Puiu
June 20, 2018 @ 6:18 pm

share Share

Renewable energy are set to power the future in 2050. Credit: Pixabay.

Renewable energy are set to power the future in 2050. Credit: Pixabay.

The annual energy report by Bloomberg NEF (BNEF) concluded that wind and solar are set to surge to a “50 by 50” future, meaning they’ll account for 50% of the world’s energy production by the year 2050. The main driver for this tremendous growth is falling battery cost.

The 150-page report, called New Energy Outlook (NEO) 2018, was authored by more than 65 analysts from around the world. This year’s outlook concluded that the impact of falling lithium-ion battery costs will drive huge growth for new renewable energy power capacity between 2018 and 2050.

During this timeframe, the authors predict investments of $8.4 trillion in wind and solar energy, with an additional $1.5 trillion into hydro and nuclear energy.

Since 2010, the cost of lithium-ion batteries per megawatt-hour has dropped by 80 percent.

“We see $548 billion being invested in battery capacity by 2050, two thirds of that at the grid level and one third installed behind-the-meter by households and businesses,” said Seb Henbest, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa for BNEF and lead author of NEO 2018, in a statement.

These investments should produce a 17-fold increase in solar power capacity worldwide and a six-fold increase in wind power capacity. Falling power generation costs will translate to far lower electricity bills than consumers, business or residential, see today. According to the report, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from new photovoltaic plants should fall by 71 percent by 2050 and 58 percent for onshore wind. Between 2009 and 2018, the LCOE for solar and wind has dropped by 77 percent and 41 percent respectively.

Today, gas-fired power plants and other fossil fuel-based energy generators provide round-the-clock electricity — the so-called baseload. However, BNEF envisions a 2050 future where gas-fired plants are responsible for backup energy rather than baseload. Gas-fired generation is expected to rise by 15 percent between 2017 and 2050, but its share in the overall global electricity is set to decline.

The report doesn’t forecast a bright future for coal, which is expected to continue in its downward spiral. BNEF predicts the amount of coal burned in power stations will fall from 56 percent between 2017 and 2050.

Since renewable energy will occupy the top slot in the energy generation mix, BNEF predicts global emissions will fall, rather than rise, past an inflection point. The report estimates emissions from the global electricity sector rising by 2 percent between 2017 and 2027, after which it will fall by 38 percent in 2050.

The New Energy Outlook based its conclusions on the modeling of power generation country-by-country, and on the evolving cost dynamics of different technologies.  It assumes that existing energy policy settings around the world will remain in place until their scheduled expiry dates. It doesn’t assume additional government measures, meaning the evolution of renewable energy might actually be more aggressive if policy steps up its game in favor of more sustainable measures.  

share Share

The world’s largest wildlife crossing is under construction in LA, and it’s no less than a miracle

But we need more of these massive wildlife crossings.

Your gold could come from some of the most violent stars in the universe

That gold in your phone could have originated from a magnetar.

Ronan the Sea Lion Can Keep a Beat Better Than You Can — and She Might Just Change What We Know About Music and the Brain

A rescued sea lion is shaking up what scientists thought they knew about rhythm and the brain

Did the Ancient Egyptians Paint the Milky Way on Their Coffins?

Tomb art suggests the sky goddess Nut from ancient Egypt might reveal the oldest depiction of our galaxy.

Dinosaurs Were Doing Just Fine Before the Asteroid Hit

New research overturns the idea that dinosaurs were already dying out before the asteroid hit.

Denmark could become the first country to ban deepfakes

Denmark hopes to pass a law prohibiting publishing deepfakes without the subject's consent.

Archaeologists find 2,000-year-old Roman military sandals in Germany with nails for traction

To march legionaries across the vast Roman Empire, solid footwear was required.

Mexico Will Give U.S. More Water to Avert More Tariffs

Droughts due to climate change are making Mexico increasingly water indebted to the USA.

Chinese Student Got Rescued from Mount Fuji—Then Went Back for His Phone and Needed Saving Again

A student was saved two times in four days after ignoring warnings to stay off Mount Fuji.

The perfect pub crawl: mathematicians solve most efficient way to visit all 81,998 bars in South Korea

This is the longest pub crawl ever solved by scientists.