Each year, farms around the world produce more than enough food to feed everyone—yet much of it never reaches our plates.

Although not yet peer reviewed, a new study led by Paul C. West at the University of Minnesota finds that in 2020, global croplands produced enough calories to feed 15 billion people. But only half of those calories ended up in the human food supply.

“It’s not that we can’t produce enough calories,” Hannah Ritchie, a sustainability researcher at the University of Oxford who was not involved in the study, told New Scientist. “It’s about distribution and human choices on what we do with them.”

Where Are All the Calories Going?

The team, which included researchers from Project Drawdown and independent analysts, analyzed data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. They focused on the 50 most calorie-dense crops in the world—covering everything from maize and wheat to bananas and cocoa. These crops account for nearly 98% of all calories grown globally.

Between 2010 and 2020, total global calorie production rose by nearly 24%. Yet the number of calories actually available for people to eat grew by just 17%. The rest? Diverted to animals and engines.

Some 45% of crop calories in 2020 were used to feed livestock. But those animals returned only a fraction of that energy as meat, milk, or eggs. Beef, in particular, stood out as a dietary sinkhole—requiring 33 calories of feed to produce just one calorie of edible meat.

Another 5% of crop calories were funneled into biofuels like ethanol and biodiesel. And that share is growing. Palm oil used for biodiesel, for instance, saw a 34% increase over the decade.

Although croplands are producing more calories than ever, a growing share is being diverted to uses that don’t directly feed people, leading to a steady decline in how efficiently those calories reach the human diet.

Got Beef?

Dietary choices play a central role in this decline in efficiency. As incomes rise, especially in higher-income countries, so does meat consumption, particularly beef. But beef is uniquely inefficient. Not only does it require vast amounts of feed, but it also produces high levels of greenhouse gases.

In 48 higher-income countries—including the United States, Brazil, and much of Europe—beef consumption exceeds healthy dietary levels. If people in those nations reduced their beef intake to the levels recommended by the EAT–Lancet Commission, and replaced it with chicken, the calories saved would be enough to feed 850 million people.

For a more dramatic shift—if that excess beef were replaced with lentils instead—the recovered calories could feed 1.23 billion people.

The United States and Brazil alone account for nearly 60% of this potential calorie recovery.

A Food System Out of Balance

This is not just a matter of nutrition. Agriculture is the planet’s largest consumer of water and the leading driver of deforestation. It’s also responsible for nearly a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions. And yet, the study shows that a growing share of this environmental cost is going toward food that never reaches human mouths.

The study paints a global picture, but local differences are striking. In India, 79% of crop calories were eaten directly by people in 2020, with only 19% going to livestock feed. In the United States, just 17% of crop calories were consumed as food; the rest went to animals and biofuels.

And while croplands globally produced enough calories in 2020 to feed 14.5 billion people, they actually fed just 8 billion. The “lost” calories—some 7.2 x 10¹⁵ each year—could have nourished another 7.2 billion people if used more efficiently.

The researchers emphasize that this is not a call to eliminate meat or biofuels altogether. Rather, it’s a call for balance. Small shifts—especially in beef consumption—could have outsized effects on food security and climate impact.

So, Can the System Be Fixed?

There’s no single lever to pull. But the study identifies several points of intervention:

• Dietary change: Reducing excess beef consumption in a handful of countries could significantly increase food availability and cut emissions.
• Biofuel policy: Redirecting calories from fuel to food could feed hundreds of millions.
• Crop use efficiency: Reallocating cropland away from feed and fuel toward food could help close the gap between calories grown and calories eaten.

Notably, the inefficiencies are not evenly distributed. Just three countries—the United States, China, and Brazil—account for nearly half of global feed production.

Yet there are caveats. The study focuses on calories, not protein or micronutrients. And food waste—which occurs after food reaches homes and restaurants—is not accounted for here. Nor are social factors like food access, affordability, or cultural preference.